The 2024 National League Championship Series shifts to the Big Apple after the Los Angeles Dodgers (1-1) and New York Mets (1-1) split the first two meetings across the country in LA. Who will take a 2-1 lead?
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Legend of Buehler
Since arriving in the majors seven years ago, Walker Buehler has not only been a staple of the Dodgers’ pitching rotation — he’s been as valuable as any other player that’s contributed to the franchise during this stretch of 11 straight postseason runs.
Aided by Buehler’s consistency, Los Angeles secured its only title in the last 35 years. For the Dodgers’ championship conquest of 2020, they won all but one of the right-hander’s five starts — including his lone World Series assignment — as Buehler constructed a 1.80 ERA while notching 39 strikeouts in 25 total innings.
That’s been a theme any time LA entered October armed with the Vanderbilt product. He holds a career 3.40 ERA in 16 playoff outings — all starts — and yielded two earned runs or fewer in 11 of them.
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Life difficult after Tommy John
In Buehler’s only turn this postseason, he allowed six runs — the most he’s ever been tagged for at this stage of the year. Even more illuminating, he had zero K’s.
Unfortunately, that was a microcosm of the tough season Buehler had to endure in his return from Tommy John surgery. The former first-round draft pick missed two full years before resurfacing in May but just never really looked normal. He finished the campaign 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA.
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Sevy rolling like a Chevy
The counterpart in this matchup, Luis Severino, also experienced a rebirth of sorts — but not from the injury variety.
Sevy certainly has had his fair share of injury woes throughout his career — he missed just about all three seasons from 2019-2021 — but he was in a different position entering 2024, having to rebound from his worst-ever season. In his ninth and final year with the Yankees, Severino etched a brutal 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
He was still throwing hard, though, and other signs were there for him to return to old form, hence why general manager David Stearns collected him on a one-year deal. Severino paid off big-time for the Mets and was probably their most reliable starter outside of Sean Manaea.
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What about playoff track record?
As good as Severino was early on in his stint wearing pinstripes, it didn’t translate to quite the same success in the playoffs.
The 30-year-old registered a pedestrian 5.15 ERA in 11 postseason games (10 starts) with the Yankees. However, he’s been pretty good during this current Mets playoff journey, clocking in to produce a pair of quality outings in as many tries.
Ohtani-san
Probably the biggest storyline once the calendar flipped was how Shohei Ohtani would do in his very first MLB postseason.
Surprisingly, the great Ohtani-san is hitting only 6-for-27 (.222) with one extra-base hit (a three-run home run) and no stolen bases. The linesmakers clearly still anticipate the former multi-time MVP to bust out, as he’s -250 on DraftKings Sportsbook to record one hit. In addition, he’s +195 to steal a bag, which sounds like good value considering he had 56 base swipes during the regular season.
Mets mashing
The Mets quietly ranked among the top-10 clubs in scoring through the campaign with 4.75 runs per game. Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers ranked second plating 5.2 runs on average, but it is the Amazin’s who are topping all teams in October with their 45 total runs scored.
New York’s team total for Game 3 sits at over/under 3.5 on DraftKings — and the over is the more juiced option at -125 odds.
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets Betting Prediction
So this is a bet I will be taking (I’m 3-1-1 in the playoffs), latching onto Under 8. That total isn’t available in many spots but BetMGM Sportsbook is still carrying it with a -120 tag.
Both teams were off yesterday, meaning each bullpen will be refreshed. That’s huge in case one starter is pulled prematurely and it wouldn’t be too surprising given that both managers will be operating under must-win conditions.
An academic 5-3 or 6-2 final can get us by as well (with a push). A tight game with effective relief work will help get us there.