La Niña forecast being adjusted downward, has implication on our winter

The development of a full-blown La Niña has been slow. The slow development has caused an adjustment in the La Niña forecast.

La Niña is an ocean surface temperature condition where the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface water turns cooler than normal. It’s the opposite ocean water condition from the better known warm-water El Niño.

When La Niña is ongoing and strong in the winter season, the storm track is altered which results in well-defined weather patterns. The key here is if the La Niña is moderate to strong.

At the moment, NOAA still says there is a “neutral state” in the El Niño/La Niña area. This means there isn’t either an El Niño or La Niña right now. As the La Niña beginning keeps getting delayed, so does the expected strength of the La Niña.

Here is the new forecast on how cold the water will become, which gives the strength of the La Niña. The latest projection is for the water to only cool one-half degree Celsius below normal. This would be just on the edge of a weak La Niña.

The La Niña also is now expected to be short-lived and probably over by late next spring. Here’s the chance of La Niña rolling through the winter and spring months.

The above forecast says La Niña will be weakening by late winter and over by late spring. Any storm track effects from the La Niña will be going away by late winter. Late winter is typically when La Niña exerts its strongest influence on our storm track.

With this weaker La Niña we have to reduce some of the expected heavier than normal precipitation across the Great Lakes. We also have to reduce some of the colder influence on our air.

This would say the new, slight tweak to the winter would be a touch less wet and a touch warmer. In other words, a little bit less severe of a winter.