Michigan State vs. Iowa: Betting preview, odds and predictions

The Michigan State Spartans (3-3) seek their second Big Ten win of the season Saturday when they host the Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2) for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on NBC.

The Spartans are 5.5-point underdogs across Michigan betting sites after losing three straight games following a 3-0 start. The last defeat came two weeks ago in a 31-10 road loss to Oregon before a bye week to prepare for Saturday.

Meanwhile, Iowa is coming off a 40-16 beatdown over Washington - which beat Michigan the week before - to cleanse its palate after a 35-7 drubbing against Ohio State.

Here is our Michigan State vs. Iowa betting preview, betting odds and predictions for Saturday’s Week 8 contest at Spartan Stadium:

Can Michigan State score vs. Iowa?

After years of mediocrity in the Mel Tucker era, the Spartans were looking for a jolt offensively when they hired Jonathan Smith away from Oregon State.

That hasn’t exactly come to fruition through the first six weeks of the season.

Michigan State has averaged 12 points in three losses since that 3-0 start, and it’s converted four of its 20 attempts on third down over the last two weeks.

Sure, those games came against two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and Oregon, whose high-priced rosters battled to an epic final in Eugene last week.

Yet this Iowa defense might be the best in the country, ranking second in SP+ while forcing 11 turnovers through six weeks.

That’s a scary sight for sophomore QB Aidan Chiles, who has already turned it over 11 times (eight interceptions, three fumbles) in his first six career starts.

Michigan State vs. Iowa odds

Iowa opened as a 7-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook on Sunday with a similar line across the rest of the market.

We’ve seen since the line move toward the Spartans across the best Michigan sportsbooks, which are hovering between 5.5 and 6 a few days before kickoff.

If you like the underdogs, you can still bet Michigan State +6 at DraftKings Sportsbook, which is also offering the highest total at 41.

If you’re feeling frisky, the Spartans are also dealing at +200 on the moneyline at BetMGM Sportsbook, where a $10 bet would pay a $20 profit if they win outright.

Iowa starting to find a rhythm

As has been the case for years, the bigger questions for the Hawkeyes reside on the offensive end.

Iowa ranks 81st in SP+ on offense through six games, and its scoring offense (29.2 PPG) and total offense (357.5 YPG) both rank in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten.

Yet this group is starting to click after scoring 40 points last week against Washington behind another stellar performance from Kaleb Johnson, who combined for 188 yards and three TDs.

He’s been the focal point of this Hawkeyes attack all season long, ranking second behind only Heisman Trophy odds favorite Ashton Jeanty in rushing yards (937) and yards per attempt (7.9) among those with at least 70 attempts.

In a perfect world, Iowa won’t ask much of QB Cade McNamara, who attempted just 14 passes last week. If its defense can suffocate Chiles and Co. and Johnson can do the rest offensively, it should escape East Lansing with a win.

Michigan State vs. Iowa betting

While prop betting is not yet available as of this writing, there are a few obvious matchups to target on Saturday.

Chiles has been a turnover machine in his first year under center for the Spartans, throwing multiple interceptions in three of his first six starts.

I’d be surprised if he can keep his powder dry against this opportunistic Iowa defense for 60 minutes.

Don’t expect Johnson to run wild against a Michigan State defense that quietly ranks 27th in SP+, but I would be shocked if he doesn’t find the end zone for the seventh consecutive game.

He’s scored twice in five of his first six games, and I wouldn’t hate a bet on that trend continuing this weekend.

Michigan State vs. Iowa prediction

I get why early point spread betting has favored Michigan State given Iowa’s one-dimensional offense.

But I still don’t see the Spartans scoring their way out of whatever hole they find themselves in on Saturday.

That’s why I’m betting Michigan State Under 16.5 points at +105 odds via BetMGM, and I’d lean toward Under 41 on the full-game total, as well.