You probably wonder if meteorologists ever give something a 100% chance of happening. The extended forecast for next week comes as close as possible to having the highest confidence possible.
Here’s the six-to-10 day forecast for Oct. 29 to Nov. 2.
Temperature forecast from October 29 to November 2NOAA
If you look closely at the color scale, most of Michigan has between a 90% and 100% chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures next Tuesday through Saturday.
I don‘t know if I’ve ever seen the long-range forecasting branch of NOAA give that high of a chance for a warm spell.
While this is a percent chance of being warmer than normal, it doesn’t really indicate how much warmer than normal. You can correctly assume if the chance of warmth is very high, then the warmth will be quite anomalous.
Do remember that by next week our long-term average high temperatures are in the low-50s for the southern half of Michigan and high-40s for the northern half of Michigan.
So when we talk about much above normal temperatures it means 60s and 70s, not 80s and 90s.
Here are the high temperatures expected each day from Oct. 29 to Nov. 2.
High temperature forecast from October 29 to November 2.NOAA
Next Tuesday and Wednesday should warm into the 70s for maybe all of Lower Michigan. Halloween will still be 15 degrees warmer than normal. The first two days of November will be cooler, but still five degrees warmer than normal.
We probably won’t have record high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, but we will come within five degrees of the records.
Enjoy the warm spell coming, and remember to water your newly-planted trees, shrubs and especially evergreens.