Michigan made headlines this week after the nation’s first case of a mutating new coronavirus variant was detected in Washtenaw County.
With only seven detected cases of the highly mutated BA.2.86 variant, there are more questions than answers about the public health risk. Still, the World Health Organization has flagged it as a “variant under monitoring” due to its large number of mutations.
The coronavirus situation has been relatively quiet this summer with hospitalizations and deaths remaining low in Michigan and around the country. There have however been recent increases, which could be expected based on seasonal trends from the past four years.
Detection of the new variant also comes as federal officials are preparing to consider a new COVID booster shot this fall.
Whether you’ve been following the news, or are in need of a catch-up, here’s what you should know:
What is BA.2.86?
BA.2.86 is the name of the latest observed lineage of the Omicron strain of SARS-CoV-2. It’s believed to be a descendent of BA.2, which became the dominant global strain of coronavirus in early 2022. Since then, a number of Omicron variant mutations have taken turns as the most-common strain.
The BA.2.86 subvariant was first identified in Israel in late July. Since then, there have been six additional samples sequenced between Denmark, the United Kingdom, and the U.S, according to GISAID, a global virus tracker. The latest case was identified in Virginia.
With so few cases sequenced thus far, health officials don’t know if sickness from the latest variant is any different from prior strains, including its symptoms, transmissibility, and severity. It’s also not clear how well the existing vaccines and natural immunity will hold up against it.
There are another 29 different sub-lineage variations of Omicron circulating the country this summer. The EG.5 strain is the most common in the U.S., accounting for 20.6% of sequenced samples.
What’s the latest data on coronavirus in Michigan?
Coronavirus levels have been historically low throughout the summer, based on the state health department’s case and hospitalization data. So while there has been a recent uptick, rates remain low.
As of Monday, Aug. 21, there were 212 adult patients in Michigan hospitals with confirmed COVID-19. That’s even a significant improvement from 414 patients in mid-May when the public health emergency came to an end.
All 83 counties have less than 10 COVID hospital admissions per 100,000 people.
State and local health departments continue to monitor transmission, primarily through hospital admissions, death records and wastewater surveillance.
What’s the COVID environment look like nationally?
Like Michigan, the U.S. has seen a recent increase in COVID metrics, including hospitalizations and deaths. For the week of Aug. 6-12, there were 12,613 COVID hospital admissions, which was up 21.6% from the prior week.
The vast majority of counties throughout the U.S. (97%) have low reported hospital admissions per capita. Of the 85 counties with medium-tier hospital admissions -- 10-20 per capita -- 21 are in Florida, which also leads all other states with 3% of emergency department visits being diagnosed with COVID.
Total COVID deaths also increased nationally in recent weeks. The week of Aug. 6-12 included an 8.3% increase from the prior week, led by Florida, Tennessee and Delaware.
What’s the COVID forecast?
Dr. Natasha Bagdasarian, the state’s chief medical executive, said national models from a number of academic sites around the country are predicting an increase in cases again this year as Michigan heads into the fall and winter.
Like other respiratory illnesses, transmission is more common during the colder months as social gatherings move indoors where there tends to be less ventilation.
As the weather begins to turn, health officials are planning to increase messaging for residents to stay up to date on their vaccinations against COVID and influenza, and to monitor symptoms and avoid other people if you’re feeling ill.
What’s the status on the next COVID-19 vaccine?
Advisors to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a recommendation for the next version of COVID-19 vaccine during their June 15 meeting. The vote was unanimous in recommending a monovalent XBB.1.5 composition for the booster.
Unlike the previous bivalent booster, which was made to combat both the original strain and the omicron BA.4 and BA.5 variants, the recommended booster for the 2023-24 season would solely focus on offering defense against the XBB sub-lineages of the virus.
The FDA has advised vaccine manufacturers to update their COVID shots with the monovalent XBB.1.5 composition. That lineage accounted for about 64% of sequenced samples in May, but about 5% of samples as of last week.
Federal regulators are expected to change the Emergency Use Authorization to the new booster in mid-to-late September, according to the CDC. Once the FDA changes the EUA, it will signal the discontinuation of the current bivalent vaccine composition.
Vaccine availability will then be administered across all age groups with “traditional pathways for procurement, distribution, and payment,” according to the CDC. Uninsured adults will be able to received COVID-19 vaccines through the Bridge Access Program for COVID-19 Vaccines and Treatments.
As for who will be recommended to get the new shot, Dr. Bagdasarian said the state is waiting for updated guidance from federal health officials before making a recommendation.
Vaccine uptake isn’t expected to be substantial based on historical evidence. About 64% of Michiganders got at least one dose of COVID vaccine during the pandemic, but less than 18% got a dose of the bivalent booster that has been available for almost a year.
To learn more about COVID vaccines, visit the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services website, here. Visit vaccines.gov/search to find a vaccine provider near you or contact your local health department or primary care physician.
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